ŠIROM Europe is reeling with an unusually high number of COVID 19 cases for the past few weeks and this can be attributed to the highly transmissible delta variant along with relaxation in COVID norms with respect to wearing of masks and maintaining physical distancing. The situation is further compounded by the fact that there is difference in vaccination rates among the EU countries. Similar situation is happening in the USA where double vaccinated people have stopped wearing masks in public areas. The onset of winter in these countries is further making the situation more challenging due to indoor confinement. According to estimates by IHME, cumulative COVID deaths in the region may cross 2.2 million marks by March 2022, if COVID norms are not strictly adhered to, and wearing masks is appearing to be the single most important step that can prevent over 160 000 deaths by 1 March 2022.
It’s been almost two years since the start of the COVID-19 in China and the entire world is still grappling with the disease despite concerted efforts with regards to emergency use vaccination and desperately trying to find measures to control the deadly disease. Recently, there has been a resurgence of cases in ŠIROM Europe and Central Asia and this may be attributed to the highly transmissible delta variant. This is coupled by the fact that a large majority of population is still not vaccinated (reluctance to take vaccines). The situation is further compounded by the relaxed attitude in people with respect to following the COVID norms of wearing masks, socijalno distanciranje, pranje ruku i održavanje pravilne ventilacije unutarnjih prostora. Prema procjenama IHME-a, izvođenjem modeliranja na temelju aktualnih trendova, ukupan broj umrlih od COVID-19 u regiji mogao bi do ožujka 2.2. godine prijeći 2022 milijuna maraka, što bi dovelo do velikog stresa za zdravstveni sustav.
Ni početak hladnog zimskog vremena ne pomaže uzroku. Ljudi su se počeli zatvarati u zatvorenim prostorima (u prostorijama bez odgovarajuće ventilacije) kako bi pobjegli od zimske hladnoće, a to bi dalje moglo dovesti do većeg prijenosa.
With a total population of ~750 million in ŠIROM Europe, over one billion vaccine doses have been administered, with around 53% of the population receiving both the doses. However, this number hides the correct picture of vaccination across various countries as in some Western EU countries such as the UK, 83.5% to 89.8% of the adults have taken both the doses. This corresponds to 56-60 million of the total 67 million population in the UK with two doses, which translates to 120 million doses given in the UK alone.
In order to control the pandemic, reducing COVID-19 virus transmission is the key. This can be made possible by increasing the vaccine uptake in regions where there has been a reluctance due to cultural and behavioural issues, complying with COVID norms as much as possible when in public places, and providing booster doses to the vulnerable population such as those aged 60 and over and healthcare workers. According to WHO ŠIROM Europe report, mask wearing reduces COVID-19 incidence by 53%. In addition, if universal mask coverage of 95% is achieved starting today, it is estimated that over 160 000 deaths could be prevented by 1 March 2022.
Prema procjenama IHME-a, povećanje unosa cjepiva i nošenje maski ključ su za sprječavanje prijenosa COVID-19 i na kraju smrti (vidi Tablicu I). Stopa smrtnosti od COVID-a 19, u protekloj godini, u svim zemljama navedenim u Tablici I, bila je oko 0.2%-0.3% ukupnog stanovništva, osim Kine u kojoj nema značajnijeg mortaliteta (stopa smrtnosti od 0.0003%) . Međutim, postoji značajna razlika u dvostruko cijepljenoj populaciji među navedenim zemljama, a Kina je na vrhu (75%), a slijede Francuska (69%), UK (68%), Njemačka (65%) i SAD (58%). %). Predviđa se da će sve ove zemlje povećati svoju stopu cijepljenja za 1-10% do ožujka 2022. Od posebnog su spomena Bugarska i Rumunjska, u kojima je primjena cjepiva stagnira od sada do ožujka 2022. Predviđa se da će zemlje poput Indije više nego udvostručiti svoje stopa cijepljenja s dvije doze do ožujka 2022.
Ipak, podaci naglašavaju da će se predviđeni kumulativni smrtni slučajevi od COVID-19 značajno smanjiti ako 95% ljudi od danas počne nositi maske i strogo se pridržavati ove norme. Osim toga, potrebno je pridržavati se i drugih normi za COVID-19 kao što su pranje ruku, fizičko/socijalno distanciranje i boravak u dobro prozračenim prostorima.
Nošenje maski je stoga ključna preporuka za sve ove zemlje i svijet u budućnosti, gdje ljudi popuštaju COVID norme, zbog dvostrukog cijepljenja i zbog manjeg broja prijavljenih slučajeva, što se može pripisati vremenskim uvjetima i/ili demografskom statusu. .
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